Sample Mount Everest Weather Forecast
(provided by West Coast Weather, LLC)
Forecast issued
Tuesday May 15 (14 z) (Tuesday May 15, 8:00 PM Nepal time) to get to Nepal time add roughly 6 hours to the z time.
The next forecast will be Wednesday May 16 by 19 z.
Short form forecast per request
Wednesday May 16 and Thursday May 17
Average Summit winds 28 to 40 knots (14 to 20 m/s)
Average Winds at 26,000 feet 20 knots (10 m/s)
Average Winds at 24,000 feet 10 to 20 knots (5 to 10 m/s)
Snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) of trace to 4 inches (1 to 10. 16 cm) each day
Friday May 18 and Saturday May 19
Average Summit winds 20 to 30 knots (10 to 15 m/s)
Average Winds at 26,000 feet 20 knots (10 m/s)
Average Winds at 24,000 feet 10 to 20 knots (5 to 10 m/s)
Snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) of Trace to 4 inches (up to 10. 16 cm) each day
Sunday May 20
Average Summit winds 20 to 40 knots (10 to 20 m/s)
Average Winds at 26,000 feet 10 to 28 knots (5 to 14 m/s)
Average Winds at 24,000 feet 10 to 20 knots (5 to 10 m/s)
Snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) of Trace to 4 inches (up to 10.16 cm).
Monday May 21
Average Summit winds 24 to 44 knots (12 to 22 m/s)
Average Winds at 26,000 feet 10 to 30 knots (5 to 15 m/s)
Average Winds at 24,000 feet 10 to 20 knots (5 to 10 m/s)
Snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) of Trace to 4 inches (up to 10.16 cm).
Summary
The "former" tropical cyclone Akash that was formed in the Bay of Bengal has now moved inland well south and east of Everest so this is no longer an issue. The winds continue to slowly die down and what we are noticing that the winds are relatively low at below 26,00 feet but very close to the summit go up to average 30 to 40 knots (15 to 20 m/s) However, what is also of interest is that these averages tend to change over time and do seem to drop down below the 30 to 40 knots levels at times. I cannot pinpoint the exact time that this occurs. Winds generally seem to go down for Friday May 18 and Saturday May 19. Then by Sunday May 20 and Monday May 21 there seems to be a tendency for an increase. No major snow storms are on the horizon through Sunday May 20
Estimated Real Time Summit Weather on Tuesday May 15 (12z)
Average speed of 20 to 36 knots (10 to 18m/s) from southwest
Forecast Models-Confidence
High confidence in wind speeds slowly becoming lower between now and Saturday May 19. However, starting on Sunday May 20 low confidence in this forecast.
With the snowfall totals I continue to have a low confidence rating.
Forecasted Temperatures
Night summit temperatures of -28 C (-18 F). However, by Friday May 18 -25 C (-13 F)
Precipitation & clouds
No major storms are seen
Values listed are amounts of snow not amounts of rain.
Wednesday May 16 to Sunday May 20 Clouds and Prec
From trace up to 4 inches (up to 10.16 cm) each day.
Most of the clouds should be slightly to the north of Everest. But there will be some high clouds near Everest
Jet Stream
The jet has moved north of the region and will not be over Everest through at least Sunday May 20.
Monsoon
The monsoon continues the pattern of being about 7 days faster than normal. The monsoon season usually starts June 1 and if this trend continues than the monsoon start would be close to May 24. It is important to note that the start of the season relates to the moderate rainfall that starts in the Southern part of India so the heavy rainfall would not migrate up north towards Everest for a while….
Short-term wind
Wednesday May 16 (0 z) to Thursday May 17 (0z)
Slow reduction in speeds. Usually periods earlier in the day will experience the lowest summit winds. Wide distribution of wind speeds over time and short geographic region. So we can see winds get below the averages listed.
Maximum Summit winds from 40 to 50 knots (20 to 25 m/s). Direction 180 to 250 degrees.
Average summit winds from 28 to 40 knots (14 to 20 m/s) Direction 180 to 250 degrees
Maximum Winds at 26,400' (8000 meters) 30 to 40 knots (15 to 20 m/s). . Direction 180 to 240 degrees
Average Winds at 26,400' (8000 meters) 20 knots (10 m/s). . Direction 180 to 240 degrees
Maximum Winds at 23,100' (7000 meters) 20 to 30 knots (10 to 15 m/s). Direction 180 to 240 degrees.
Average Winds at 23,100' (7000 meters) 10 to 20 knots (5 to 10 m/s). Direction 180 to 240 degrees
Friday May 18 (0z) to Saturday May 19 (oz)
Usually periods earlier in the day will experience the lowest summit winds. Wide distribution of wind speeds over time and short geographic region. So we can see a winds get below the averages listed
Maximum Summit winds from 30 to 40 knots (15 to 20 m/s). Direction 200 to 260 degrees.
Average summit winds from 20 to 30 knots (10 to 15 m/s) Direction 200 to 260 degrees
Maximum Winds at 26,400' (8000 meters) 30 to 38 knots (15 to 19 m/s). Direction 200 to 260 degrees
Average Winds at 26,400' (8000 meters) 20 knots (10 m/s). . Direction 200 to 260 degrees
Maximum Winds at 23,100' (7000 meters) 10 to 26 knots (10 to 13 m/s). Direction 200 to 260 degrees.
Average Winds at 23,100' (7000 meters) 10 to 20 knots (5 to 10 m/s). Direction 200 to 260 degrees
Sunday May 20 (0z)
Some models are showing an increase.
Maximum Summit winds from 30 to 50 knots (15 to 25 m/s). Direction 220 to 280 degrees.
Average summit winds from 20 to 40 knots (10 to 20 m/s) Direction 220 to 280 degrees
Maximum Winds at 26,400' (8000 meters) 20 to 30 knots (10 to 15 m/s). Direction 220 to 280 degrees
Average Winds at 26,400' (8000 meters) 10 to 28 knots (10 to 14 m/s). . Direction 220 to 280 degrees
Maximum Winds at 23,100' (7000 meters) 10 to 30 knots (5 to 15 m/s). Direction 200 to 280 degrees.
Average Winds at 23,100' (7000 meters) 10 to 20 knots (5 to 10 m/s). Direction 200 to 280 degrees
Monday May 21 (0z)
Some models are showing an increase.
Maximum Summit winds from 30 to 50 knots (15 to 25 m/s). Direction 220 to 290 degrees.
Average summit winds from 24 to 44 knots (12 to 22 m/s) Direction 220 to 290 degrees
Maximum Winds at 26,400' (8000 meters) 20 to 30 knots (10 to 15 m/s). Direction 220 to 290 degrees
Average Winds at 26,400' (8000 meters) 10 to 20 knots (10 to 10 m/s). . Direction 220 to 290 degrees
Maximum Winds at 23,100' (7000 meters) 10 to 30 knots (5 to 15 m/s). Direction 200 to 290 degrees.
Average Winds at 23,100' (7000 meters) 10 to 20 knots (5 to 10 m/s). Direction 200 to 290 degrees
Longer term forecast starting Monday May 21 (0z)
Low confidence in this forecast as some models put average summit speed close to 50 knots for Monday May 21 to Wednesday May 23 and others keep it at 30 knots (15 m/s) However, medium confidence in no big storms seen in this longer term from May 21 to May 23
West Coast Weather, LLC
This forecast is based on computer generated weather data generated from government agencies that West Coast Weather, LLC. dab Washington Online Weather deems reliable. However, the weather can change quickly and unforeseeably, and there are many factors which you should consider in deciding whether to proceed with an outing, including the visible weather at the trailhead, the strength and experience of the party, snow and avalanche conditions, route conditions, etc. You are the final decision maker whether to proceed. West Coast Weather, LLC dba Washington Online Weather cannot be held liable for loss or injury arising from your decision to proceed, and expressly disclaims all liability related thereto.
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