Weather Forecasting, Mount Everest Style
Mountains like Everest create their own weather. Because of their height and shear mass, they may have mountain specific weather patterns. For example, winds are sometimes funneled up a valley, forcing the air to rise. As it rises, the air cools and clouds may form. Before you know it, a heavy snow squall may appear. Such mountain specific weather activity requires special forecasting processes to be used.
For Everest climbers, the use of computer generated forecasts without skilled, human interpretation is dangerous. A forecast may show attractive 20mph wind conditions on one part of the mountain, but the inexperienced may miss the fact that a storm with 100mph winds is within striking distance of the Everest camp. Furthermore, the inexperienced eye would not know that such conditions over the past three years served as a leading indicator of a large storm about to blow in.
For Mount Everest, there are three primary weather forecast providers. Michael Fagin is one of them. The other two are based out of the UK and Switzerland. Clients like Alpine Ascents and International Mountain Guides (IMG) work with Michael, other guides services such as the UK based Jagged Globe may rely on their local provider. In practice, the leading Everest guides tend to compare notes on the mountain, thereby gaining the best possible insight into what weather they can expect.
Michael will spend hours at a time on each forecast, pouring through the available information, drawing on his years of experience forecasting Everest weather, mentally processing the data until he then develops a single, simple to understand projection of the weather to come. “It’s kind of like a puzzle,” he states. “You have different sources of information. All of it varies to some degree and things can get pretty complex.” The pressure for Michael is on. Thousands of miles away, on the other side of the globe, climbers lives are dependent on the accuracy of the forecasts this weatherman is developing.
Instead of relying on a single model, Michael ensures high quality forecasts by referencing 4-6 models… comparing outputs, incorporating his knowledge of each model’s strengths/ weaknesses/nuances, looking for patterns and trends. He has a sort of checklist he uses, a methodical way to work through the massive amounts of data he is digesting. As a step in his process for example, he may review several maps of the Bay of Bengal, using the multiple sources to best assess the timing of the monsoon season’s arrival. Leveraging his experience, his forecasts tend to be accurate. That said, inaccuracies still occur (projecting the level of precipitation is particularly tricky). So, just at the modelers mentioned above have a feedback mechanism (comparing the forecast to the actual weather experienced), Michael does too. His ‘real weather’ source, however, is not a computer. It’s rather the verbal weather description the Everest climber provides him: “It’s colder than the forecast suggested Michael. It’s really, really cold here… must be -30 degrees F and real windy… think gusts are up to 50mph!” This could be the less than exact feedback Michael gets from the field. Using this information (it’s the best he has), he’ll go back to his forecasts and see what went wrong… perhaps finding clues that will provide a more informed insight into an upcoming storm or, ideally, improved weather conditions.
Clients of Michael may pay about $1500 for his Everest service, though prices vary dependent on the number of clients he has in a given year. This covers the provision of a periodic forecast during the full climbing period (early April through end of May). The weather is projected out about a week with days 1-3 having the highest level of accuracy. Forecasts are shared every few days during April and then daily starting May 1; during critical times such as the hours at high camp before the push to the summit, multiple discussions with climbers is common.
Information is shared with clients via email and/or verbally. In some cases just a text forecast is provided (sample here). In other cases, a corresponding weather map is provided as well (see diagram below).
